More OC RE job numbers

I posted this on Lansner's blog but with the pigs and bears fighting I think it might have been overlooked. Also the link is for an article from the Register on the mortgage jobs situation in OC and how it feels like a "recession" in the industry.

Ok here are some stats on RE jobs in OC. I took the same categories from the www.bls.gov that Jon uses. The only category I don't like is the building services because it has seen consistent growth with few down years but I kept it none the less. All numbers are subject to error by + or - 1% and to be honest I could have messed up the math. So take it for what it is worth.

Currently RE accounts for 16.5%.
Historical average from 1990 to 2006 is 13.2%
Using January 1996 as guide to a historical low is 11.7%.

Construction jobs had historical lows in 1993 while all other RE was still ok. RE jobs saw lows in 1996 while construction jobs had picked up. So I chose 1996 because RE was the lowest.

Now if you take the historical average of 13.2% and these people who have lost their jobs do not find a new line of work our unemployment rate will be 6.3%.

There are many factors that would make that number off as it is just raw number and they will most likely find other jobs. As long as job growth continues in other sectors then it won't be that bad. But if job growth slows in other sectors all bets are off and it will get ugly.